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Bull of the Day: Bloomin' Brands (BLMN)

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Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN - Free Report) is a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) that owns and operates casual, upscale casual, and fine dining restaurants.The company’s family of brands has expanded to include Carrabba's Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill, Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, and Aussie Grill by Outback.

The stock has performed well in 2023, trading up as much as 40% after a solid earnings report back in February. However, the stock has dropped about 13% since those highs and investors are looking to buy the dip.

About the Company

Bloomin’ Brands was founded in 1988 and is based in Tampa, FL. The company operates through two segments, U.S. and International.

The stock has a Zacks Style Score of “A” in Value and “B” in Growth. Value investors like the name as the Forward PE is under 9.  

BLMN currently employs approximately 87,000 Team Members and more than 1,450 restaurants worldwide. The company pays a dividend of 3.8%.

Q4 Earnings Beat

In mid-February, the company reported an earnings beat of 8%. This was the 12th straight EPS beat, a streak that started right after the COVID panic.

Looking at the quarter, the company reported EPS of $0.68 v the $0.63 expected. Revenues came just below expectations, but the company guided Q1 at $0.85-90, above the $0.85 expected. FY23 was guided higher, with the company now seeing a range of $2.91-$3.00 v the $2.67 expected.

Operating margins were up year over year despite significant inflation. The company raised their quarterly dividend by 71% and authorized a new $125M share repurchase program.

Analyst Estimates

Looking at analyst estimates since earnings, we see numbers ticking higher across most time frames.  

Over the last 60 days, estimates for the current quarter have gone from $0.85 to $0.87. For next quarter, we see a 15% jump over that same time frame.

Looking at the bigger picture and the current year, we see estimates heading 9% higher over the last two months. Analyst have hiked from $2.67 to $2.93 since earnings were reported.  

For next year, we see a similar move in estimates, with numbers headed from $2.83 to $3.09 since earnings. This is a move of 9% to the upside.

Since earnings, multiple analysts have taken price targets higher for BLMN. JPMorgan took theirs from $26 to $30, while Credit Suisse went from $27 to $31, Raymond James was the most bullish on the EPS report, going from $30 to $33 and rating BLMN with a Strong Buy.  

The Technicals

The stock traded sideways for most of 2022, closing lower by about 4%. But the bulls came roaring in at the turn of the new year, talking the stock up 20%, from the $20 area to $24. When the company reported EPS in February, the stock further extended, hitting a high of $28.49.

Those highs made back in February were about 5% off the all-time highs, so investors are stalking the current pullback in anticipation that price can get back to those 2021 highs.

Drawing a Fibonacci retracement from the 2022 close to 2023 highs, we get a 50% retrace at the $24.30 level. This area has found buyers in the past and the 61.8% retracement at $23.30 is a level of interest as well.

If these levels were to fail, the bulls will likely support the 200-day at $22.

Bottom Line

Bloomin’ Brands has found its place in the casual dining market and is seeing success despite macro headwinds. For long-term investors, the stock is looking good on both the fundamental and technical sides.

Moreover, investors get paid a nice dividend and will see cash returned to shareholders in the form of stock buybacks. The bulls should expect the stock to trade back at all-time highs if markets can continue the positive 2023 trend.


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